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Chronological List of Publications: Contact us with your latest!

Liang, S., M.D. Hurteau, and A.L. Westerling. 2017. Potential decline in carbon carrying capacity under projected climate-wildfire interactions in the Sierra Nevada. Scientific Reports 7: 2420.

Lucash, M.S., R.M. Scheller, E.J. Gustafson, and B.R. Sturtevant. 2017. Spatial resilience of forested landscapes under climate change and management. Landscape Ecology 32:958-969.

Ma, J., X. Xiao, R. Bu, R. Doughty, Y. Hu, B. Chen, X. Li, B. Zhao. 2017. Application of the space-for-time substitution method in validating long-term biomass predictions of a forest landscape model. Environmental Modelling & Software 94:127-139.

Gustafson, E. J., A. de Bruijn, N. Lichti, D.F. Jacobs, B.R. Sturtevant, J. Foster, B.R. Miranda, and H.J. Dalgleish. 2017. The implications of American chestnut reintroduction on landscape dynamics and carbon storage. Ecosphere 8(4):e01773.

De Jager, N.R., P.J. Drohan, B.M. Miranda, B.R. Sturtevant, S.L. Stout, A.A. Royo, E.J. Gustafson, and M.C. Romanski. 2017. Simulating ungulate herbivory across forest landscapes: A browsing extension for LANDIS-II. Ecological Modelling 350: 11-29.

Krofcheck, D.J., M.D. Hurteau, R.M. Scheller, and E.L. Loudermilk. 2017. Restoring surface fire stabilizes forest carbon under extreme fire weather in the Sierra Nevada. Ecosphere 8(1):e01663. 10.1002/ecs2.1663

Creutzburg, M.K., R.M. Scheller, M.S. Lucash, S.D. LeDuc, and M.G. Johnson. 2017. Forest management scenarios in a changing climate: tradeoffs between carbon, timber, and old forest. Ecological Applications 27: 503-518.

Gustafson, E.G., M.S. Lucash, J. Liem, H. Jenny, R.M. Scheller, K. Barrett, B.R. Sturtevant. 2016. Seeing the Future Impacts of Climate Change and Forest Management: a Landscape Visualization System for Forest Managers. USFS General Technical Report NRS-164. Newtown Square, PA: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northern Research Station. 18 p.

Loudermilk, E.L., R.M. Scheller. P.J. Weisberg, A.M. Kretchun. 2016. Bending the carbon curve: fire management for carbon resilience under climate change. Landscape Ecology 1-12.

Kretchun, A.M., E.L. Loudermilk, R.M. Scheller, M.D. Hurteau, and S. Belmecheri. 2016. Climate and bark beetle effects on forest productivity — linking dendroecology with forest landscape modeling. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 46:1026-1034.

Dymond, C.C., C.R. Nitschke, K.D. Coates, R.M. Scheller. 2016. Carbon sequestration in managed temperate coniferous forests under climate change. Biogeosciences, 13(6), 1933. [LINK]

Boulanger, Y., A.R. Taylor, D.T. Price, D. Cyr, E. McGarrigle, W. Rammer, G. Sainte-Marie, A. Beaudoin, L. Guindon, N. Mansuy. 2016. Climate change impacts on forest landscapes along the Canadian southern boreal forest transition zone. Landscape Ecology 1-17.

Gustafson, Eric J., A.M.G. De Bruijn, B.R. Miranda, B.R. Sturtevant. 2016. Implications of mechanistic modeling of drought effects on growth and competition in forest landscape models. Ecosphere 7(4):e01253. [LINK]

Gustafson, E.J., and D.J. Shinneman. 2015. Approaches to modeling landscape-scale drought-induced forest mortality. Pages 45-71 in Perera, AH, BR Sturtevant and LJ Buse. Simulation Modeling of Forest Landscape Disturbances. Springer, New York.

Mallampalli, V. R., G. Mavrommati, J. Thompson, M. Duveneck, S. Meyer, A. Ligmann-Zielinska, C.G. Druschke, K. Hychka, M.A. Kenney, K. Kok, and M.E. Borsuk. 2016. Methods for translating narrative scenarios into quantitative assessments of land use change. Environmental Modelling Software 82:7–20.

Middendorp, R.S., A.J. Pérez, A. Molina, and E.F. Lambin. 2016. The potential to restore native woody plant richness and composition in a reforesting landscape: a modeling approach in the Ecuadorian Andes. Landscape Ecology 1-19. DOI: 10.1007/s10980-016-0340-7

Duveneck, M.J. and R.M. Scheller. 2016. Measuring and managing resistance and resilience under climate change in northern Great Lake forests (USA). Landscape Ecology 31:1933-1947.

Thompson, J.R., E. Simons-Legaard, K.R. Legaard, and J.B. Domingo. 2016. A LANDIS-II extension for incorporating land use and other disturbances. Environmental Software and Modeling 75: 202–205. [LINK]

Blumstein, M. and J.R. Thompson. 2015. Land-use impacts on the quantity and configuration of ecosystem service provisioning in Massachusetts, USA. J. of Applied Ecology 52: 1009–1019.

Serra-Diaz, J.M., R.M. Scheller, A.D. Syphard, and J. Franklin. 2015. Disturbance and climate microrefugia mediate tree range shifts during climate change. Landscape Ecology 30: 1039-1053.

Di Febbraro M., F. Roscioni, L. Frate, M.L. Carranza, L. De Lisio, D. De Rosa, M. Marchetti, and A. Loy. 2015. Long-term effects of traditional and conservation-oriented forest management on the distribution of vertebrates in Mediterranean forests: a hierarchical hybrid modelling approach. Diversity and Distribution (online version)

Simons-Legaard, E., K. Legaard, and A. Weiskittel. 2015. Predicting aboveground biomass with LANDIS-II: A global and temporal analysis of parameter sensitivity. Ecological Modelling 313: 325-332.

Newton, A. C. and E. Cantarello. 2015. Restoration of forest resilience: An achievable goal? New Forests: 46: 645-668.

Duveneck, M.J. and R.M. Scheller. 2015. Climate suitable planting as a strategy for maintaining forest productivity and functional diversity. Ecological Applications 25: 1653-1668.

Jenny, H., J. Liem, M.S. Lucash, and R.M. Scheller. 2014. 4D statistical surface method for visual change detection in forest ecosystem simulation time series. IEEE Journal of Selected Topics in Applied Earth Observations and Remote Sensing 7: 4505-4511.

Yang, J., P.J. Weisberg, T.E. Dilts, E.L. Loudermilk, R.M. Scheller, A. Stanton, and C. Skinner. 2015. Predicting wildfire occurrence distribution with spatial point process models and its uncertainty assessment: a case study in the Lake Tahoe Basin, USA. International Journal of Wildland Fire 24: 380-390.

Martin, K.L., M.D. Hurteau, B.A. Hungate, G.W. Koch, and M.P. North. 2015. Carbon tradeoffs of restoration and provision of endangered species habitat in a fire-maintained forest. Ecosystems 18: 76-88.

Scheller, R.M. and M.E. Swanson. 2015. Simulating Forest Recovery Following Disturbances: Vegetation Dynamics and Biogeochemistry. In “Simulation Modeling of Forest Landscape Disturbances” A.H. Perera, B.R. Sturtevant, and L.J. Buse, Editors. Springer International Publishing Switzerland.

Gustafson, E.J., A.M.G. De Bruijn, M.E. Kubiske, R.E. Pangle, J-M Limousin, N. McDowell, B.R. Sturtevant, J. Muss, and W.T. Pockman. 2015. Integrating ecophysiology and forest landscape models to better project drought effects under climate change. Global Change Biology 21: 843–856.

Pauli, B.P., P.A. Zollner, G.S. Haulton, G. Shao, and G. Shao 2015. The simulated effects of timber harvest on suitable habitat for Indiana and northern long-eared bats. Ecosphere 6:art58 [LINK]

Thompson, J.R., K. Fallon-Lambert, D.R. Foster, M. Blumstein, E.N. Broadbent, and A.M. Almeyda Zambrano. 2014. Changes to the Land: Four Scenarios for the Future of the Massachusetts Landscape. Harvard Forest, Harvard University. ISBN: 978-0615-9852-68. [LINK]

Wang, F., D.J. Mladenoff, J.A. Forrester, J.A. Blanco, R.M. Scheller, S.D. Peckham, C. Keough, M. Lucash, and S.T. Gower. 2014. Multi-model simulations of forest harvesting effects on long-term productivity and CN cycling in aspen forests. Ecological Applications 24: 1374-1389.

Janowiak, M. K., L.R. Iverson, D.J. Mladenoff, E. Peters, K.R. Wythers, W. Xi, et al. 2014. Forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis for northern Wisconsin and western Upper Michigan: a report from the Northwoods Climate Change Response Framework project. Gen. Tech. Rep. NRS-136. Newtown Square, PA: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northern Research Station. 247 p.

Handler. S., M.J. Duveneck, L. Iverson, E. Peters, R.M. Scheller, K. Wythers, L. Brandt, P. Butler, M. Janowiak, P.D. Shannon, C. Swanston, R. Kolka, C. McQuiston, B. Palik, C. Turner, M. White. 2014. Minnesota Forest Ecosystem Vulnerability Assessment and Synthesis. USFS General Technical Report NRS-133.

Handler. S., M.J. Duveneck, L. Iverson, E. Peters, R.M. Scheller, K. Wythers, L. Brandt, P. Butler, M. Janowiak, P.D. Shannon, C. Swanston, A. Clark-Eagle, J.G. Cohen, R. Corner, P.B. Reich, and others. 2014. Michigan Forest Ecosystem Vulnerability Assessment and Synthesis. USFS General Technical Report NRS-129.

Thomas-Van Gundy, M., and B.R. Sturtevant. 2014. Using scenario modeling for spruce restoration planning in West Virginia. Journal of Forestry 112: 457–466

De Bruijn, A. M. G., E.J. Gustafson, B.R., Sturtevant, J. Foster, B.R. Miranda, N. Lichti, and D.F. Jacobs. 2014. Toward more robust projections of forest landscape dynamics under novel environmental conditions: more mechanistic simulations of competition for water and light in LANDIS-II. Ecological Modelling 287: 44-57.

Mairota, P., V. Leronni, W. Xi, D.J. Mladenoff, and H. Nagendra. 2014. Using spatial simulations of habitat modification for adaptive management of protected areas: Mediterranean grassland modification by woody plant encroachment. Environmental Conservation 41: 144-156.

Kretchun A., R.M. Scheller, M.S. Lucash, K.L. Clark, J. Hom and S. Van Tuyl. 2014. The effects of multiple disturbances on carbon sequestration in the forests of the New Jersey Pine Barrens under different climate scenarios. PLOS One. [LINK]

Birt, A. G., Y. Zeng, M.D. Tchakerian, R.N. Coulson, C.W. Lafon, D.M. Cairns and D.A. Street. 2014. Evaluating Southern Appalachian Forest Dynamics without Eastern Hemlock: Consequences of Herbivory by the Hemlock Woolly Adelgid. Open Journal of Forestry 4: 91.

Cantarello, E., A Lovegrove, A. Orozumbekov, J. Birch, N. Brouwers, and A.C. Newton. 2014. Human impacts on forest biodiversity in protected walnut-fruit forests in Kyrgyzstan. Journal of Sustainable Forestry 33: 454-481.

Duveneck, M.J., R.M. Scheller, and M.A White. 2014. Effects of alternative forest management strategies in the face of climate change in the northern Great Lake region. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 44:700-710. [LINK]

Lucash M.S., R.M. Scheller, A.M. Kretchun, K. Clark and J. Hom. 2014. Impacts of climate change and fire on long-term nitrogen cycling and forest productivity in the New Jersey Pine Barrens. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 44: 402-412. 

Duveneck, M.J., R.M. Scheller, M.A. White, S.D. Handler, and C. Ravenscroft. 2014. Climate change effects on northern Great Lake (USA) forests: A case for preserving diversity. Ecosphere 5:23. [LINK]

Loudermilk, E.L., A. Stanton, R.M. Scheller, T.E. Dilts, P.J. Weisberg, C. Skinner, J. Yang. 2014. Effectiveness of fuel treatments for mitigating wildfire risk and sequestering forest carbon: A case study in the Lake Tahoe Basin. Forest Ecology and Management 323: 114-125. [LINK]

Sulman, B. N., Desai, A. R., & Mladenoff, D. J.2013. Modeling Soil and Biomass Carbon Responses to Declining Water Table in a Wetland-Rich Landscape. Ecosystems 16: 491-507.

Gustafson, E.J. 2013. When relationships estimated in the past cannot be used to predict the future: using mechanistic models to predict landscape ecological dynamics in a changing world. Landscape Ecology 28:1429-1437. [LINK]

Loudermilk, E.L., R.M. Scheller, P.J.Weisberg, J. Yang, T. Dilts, S.L. Karam, C.N. Skinner. 2013. Carbon dynamics in the future forest: The importance of climate-fire interactions and long-term successional legacy. Global Change Biology 9: 3502-3515. [LINK]

Scheller, R. M. 2013. Landscape Modeling. Pages 531-538 in S. A. Levin, editor. Encyclopedia of Biodiversity. Academic Press, Waltham, MA.

Gustafson, E. J. and B. R. Sturtevant. 2013. Modeling forest mortality caused by drought stress: implications for climate change. Ecosystems 16:60-74. [LINK]

Newton, A. C., Cantarello, E., Tejedor, N., & Myers, G. 2013. Dynamics and conservation management of a wooded landscape under high herbivore pressure. International Journal of Biodiversity, 2013.

Steenberg, J.W.N., P.N. Duinker and P.G. Bush. 2013. Modelling the effects of climate change and timber harvest on the forests of central Nova Scotia, Canada. Annals of Forest Science 70: 61-73.

Karam,S., P. Weisberg, R.M. Scheller, W. Miller,D. Johnson. 2013. Development and evaluation of a nutrient cycling extension for the LANDIS-II landscape simulation model. Ecological Modelling 250: 45-57.

Scheller, R.M., A. M. Kretchun, S. Van Tuyl, K. L. Clark, M. S. Lucash, and J. Hom. 2012. Divergent carbon dynamics under climate change in forests with diverse soils,tree species, and land use histories. Ecosphere 3(11):110. [LINK]

Dymond, C.C., R.M. Scheller, and S. Beukema. 2012. A New Model For Simulating Climate Change and Carbon Dynamics in Forested Landscapes. Journal of Ecosystems and Management 13:1–2.

Sturtevant, B.R., B.R. Miranda, D.J. Shinneman, E.J. Gustafson, P.T. Wolter. 2012. Comparing modern and presettlement forest dynamics of a sub-boreal wilderness - Does spruce budworm enhance fire risk? Ecological Applications 22: 1278–1296. [LINK]

Xu, C., G.Z. Gertner, and R.M. Scheller. 2012. Pathways for forest landscape response to global climatic change: competition or colonization? Climatic Change 110: 53-83.

Steenberg, J.W.N., P.N. Duinker, P.G. Bush. 2011. Exploring adaptation to climate change in the forests of central Nova Scotia, Canada. Forest Ecology and Management 262: 2316-2327. 

Scheller, R.M., W.D. Spencer, H. Rustigan-Romsos, A.D. Syphard, B.C. Ward, J.R. Strittholt. 2011. Using stochastic simulation to evaluate competing risks of wildfires and fuels management on an isolated forest carnivore. Landscape Ecology 26: 1491-1504.

Cantarello, E., Newton, A.C., Hill, R.A., Tejedor-Garavito, N., Williams-Linera, G., López-Barrera, F., Manson, R.H., Golicher, D.J. 2011. Simulating the potential for ecological restoration of dryland forests in Mexico under different disturbance regimes. Ecological Modelling 222: 1112-1128.

Newton, A.C., Echeverría, C., Cantarello, E., Bolados, G., 2011. Projecting impacts of human disturbances to inform conservation planning and management in a dryland forest landscape. Biological Conservation 144: 1949-1960.

Thompson, J.R., D.R. Foster, R.M. Scheller, D. Kittredge. 2011. The influence of land use and climate change on forest biomass and composition in Massachusetts, USA. Ecological Applications 21: 2425-2444.

Gustafson, E.J., A.Z. Shvidenko, R.M. Scheller. 2011. Effectiveness of forest management strategies to mitigate effects of global change in south-central Siberia. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 41: 1405-1421.

Scheller, R.M., S. Van Tuyl, K. Clark, J. Hom, I. La Puma. 2011. Carbon sequestration in the in the New Jersey pine barrens under different scenarios of fire management. Ecosystems 14: 987-1004.

Syphard, A.D., R.M. Scheller, B.C. Ward, W.D. Spencer, J.R. Strittholt. 2011. Simulating landscape-scale effects of fuel treatments in the Sierra Nevada, California, USA. International Journal of Wildland Fire 20: 364-383.

Berland, A., B. Shuman, and S.M. Manson. 2011. Simulated importance of dispersal, disturbance, and landscape history in long-term ecosystem change in the Big Woods of Minnesota. Ecosystems 14: 398-414.

Spencer, W.D., H. Rustigan, R.M. Scheller, J.R. Strittholt, W.J. Zielinski, and R. Truex. 2011. Establishing a habitat and population baseline for fisher (Maretes Pennanti) for modeling future species viability in the southern Sierra Nevada, California. Biological Conservation 144: 788-803.

Scheller, R.M., D. Hua, P.V. Bolstad, R. Birdsey, D.J. Mladenoff. 2011. The effects of forest harvest intensity in combination with wind disturbance on carbon dynamics in a Lake States mesic landscape. Ecological Modelling 222: 144-153.

Birch, J.C., A.C. Newton, C.A. Aquino, E. Cantarelloa, C. Echeverríac, T. Kitzbergerd, I. Schiappacassee, N.T. Garavito. 2010. Cost-effectiveness of dryland forest restoration evaluated by spatial analysis of ecosystem services. PNAS 27: 21925-21930.

Miller, W.W., D.W.Johnson, S.L.Karam, R.F.Walker, and P.J. Weisberg. 2010. A Synthesis of Sierran Forest Biomass Management Studies and Potential Effects on Water Quality. Forests 1: 131-153.

Shinneman, D.J., M. Cornett, B.J. Palik. 2010. Simulating restoration strategies for a southern boreal forest landscape with complex land ownership patterns. Forest Ecology and Management 259: 446-458. [LINK]

Xu, C., G. Z. Gertner, B. Güneralp, R. M. Scheller. 2010. Elasticity and loop analysis: tools for understanding forest landscape response to climatic change in spatial dynamic models. Landscape ecology 25: 855-871.

Gustafson, E.J., A.Z. Shvidenko, B.R. Sturtevant, R.M. Scheller. 2010. Predicting global change effects on forest biomass and composition in south-central Siberia. Ecological Applications 20: 700-715.

Scheller, R.M., E.J. Gustafson, B.R. Sturtevant, B.C. Ward, and D.J. Mladenoff. 2010. Increasing the research and management value of ecological models using modern software engineering techniques. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment: 8(5): 253-260.

Gustafson, E.J., A.Z. Shvidenko, B.R. Sturtevant, R.M. Scheller. 2010. Using Landscape Disturbance and Succession Models to Support Forest Management. Pages 99-118 in “Landscape Ecology and Forest Management: Challenges and Solutions in a Change Globe” C. Li, R. Lafortezza, and J. Chen, Eds. Springer.

Ravenscroft, C.R., R.M. Scheller, D.J. Mladenoff, M.A. White. 2010. Simulating forest restoration in a mixed ownership landscape under climate change. Ecological Applications 20: 327-346.

Shvidenko A., Gustafson E. 2009. Forest forming process and dynamic vegetation models under global change. In: “Ecological and Geographic Aspects of Forest Forming Process”, Proceedings of the All-RussianScience Conference with International Participation, 23-25 September 2009,Krasnoyarsk, Russia (ISBN 978-5-903055-21-0), pp. 19-22 [in Russian]

Sturtevant, B.R., R.M. Scheller, B.R. Miranda, D. Shinneman, A.D. Syphard. 2009. Simulating dynamic and mixed-severity fire regimes: A process-based fire extension for LANDIS-II. Ecological Modelling 220: 3380-3393.

Swanson, Mark E. 2009. Modeling the effects of alternative management strategies on forest carbon in the Nothofagus forests of Tierra del Fuego, Chile. Forest Ecology and Management: 257(8): 1740-1750.

Xu, C., G.Z. Gertner, and R.M. Scheller. 2009. Uncertainty in forest landscape response to global climate change. Global Change Biology 15: 116-131.

Xi, W, R.N. Coulson, J.D. Waldron, M.D. Tchakerian, C.W. Lafon, D.M. Cairns, A.G. Birt, and K.D. Klepzig. 2008. Landscape modeling for forest restoration planning and assessment: Lessons from the southern Appalachian Mountains. Journal of Forestry 106 (4): 191-197.

Scheller, R.M. and D.J. Mladenoff. 2008. Simulated effects of climate change, fragmentation, and inter-specific competition on tree species migration in northern Wisconsin, USA. Climate Research 36:191-202.

Spencer, W., H. Rustigian, R.M. Scheller, A.D. Syphard, J.R. Strittholt, B.C. Ward. 2008. Baseline Evaluation of Fisher Habitat and Population Status & Effects of Fires and Fuels Management on Fishers In the Southern Sierra Nevada. Report to the USDA Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Region.

Scheller, R.M., S. Van Tuyl, K. Clark, N.G. Hayden, J. Hom, D.J. Mladenoff. 2008. Simulation of Forest Change in the New Jersey Pine Barrens under Current and Historic Conditions. Forest Ecology and Management, 255: 1489-1500.

Sturtevant, B. R., A. Fall, D. D. Kneeshaw, N. P. P. Simon, M. J. Papaik, K. Berninger, F. Doyon, D. G. Morgan, and C. Messier. 2007. A toolkit modeling approach for sustainable forest management planning: achieving balance between science and local needs. Ecology and Society 12(2): 7.

Xu, Chonggang, G.Z. Gertner, and R.M. Scheller. 2007. Potential effects of interaction between CO2 and temperature on Boundary Water Canoe Area forest landscape response to global warming. Global Change Biology 13: 1469-1483.

Scheller, R. M. and D. J. Mladenoff. 2007. Forest landscape simulation models: Tools and strategies for projecting and understanding spatially extensive forest ecosystems. Landscape Ecology 22: 491-505.

Scheller, R. M., J. B. Domingo, B. R. Sturtevant, J. S. Williams, A. Rudy, E. J. Gustafson, and D. J. Mladenoff. 2007. Design, development, and application of LANDIS-II, a spatial landscape simulation model with flexible spatial and temporal resolution. Ecological Modelling 201 (3-4): 409-419.

Gustafson, E.J., B.R. Sturtevant and A. Fall. 2006. A collaborative, iterative approach to transfer modeling technology to land managers. In Perera, A. H., Buse, L. and Crow, T.R.. (editors), Forest landscape ecology: Transferring knowledge to practice. Cambridge Press, London, UK. p. 43-64.

Ward, B. C., D. J. Mladenoff, and R. M. Scheller. 2005. Landscape-level effects of the interaction between residential development and public forest management in northern Wisconsin, USA. Forest Science 51: 616-632.

Scheller, R. M. and D. J. Mladenoff. 2005. A spatially interactive simulation of climate change, harvesting, wind, and tree species migration and projected changes to forest composition and biomass in northern Wisconsin, USA. Global Change Biology 11: 307-321.

Zollner, P. A., Gustafson, E. J., H.S .He, V.C. Radeloff and D.J. Mladenoff. 2005. Modeling the Influence of Dynamic Zoning of Forest Harvesting on a Northern Wisconsin Landscape. Environmental Management 35:410-425.

Gustafson, E.J., P.A. Zollner, B.R. Sturtevant, H. S. He and D. J. Mladenoff. 2004. Human influence on the abundance and connectivity of high-risk fuels in mixed forests of northern Wisconsin, USA. Landscape Ecology 19:327-341.

Scheller, R. M. and D. J. Mladenoff. 2004. A forest growth and biomass module for a landscape simulation model, LANDIS: Design, validation, and application. Ecological Modelling 180: 211-229.