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Future scenarios of land use, climate change and disturbance in the Southeastern United States

Future scenarios of land use, climate change and disturbance in the Southeastern United States.


The project is described at: http://speclab.ua.edu/alabama-futures.html 


This project - still in methods development and fundraising stage - seeks to quantify the impacts of different scenarios of land use and land cover change (LULCC), climate change, and insect and wind disturbances on plant species distributions, ecosystem ecology, and ecosystem services across the Southeastern United States, starting with Alabama. Please contact Eben or Angelica if you are interested in collaborating on this project for your graduate work.

We will integrate a suite of separate models:

A) Landis-ii (www.landis-ii.org) will be used to simulate forest dynamics under the different scenarios and will allow us to include insect and wind disturbances. Extensions will allow us to simulate impacts on parameters related to ecosystem ecology, such as below ground processing of Carbon and Nitrogen based on the Century nutrient cycling model. 

B) DINAMICA (http://www.csr.ufmg.br/dinamica) will be used to dynamically model future scenarios of land use and land cover change (LULCC). These will be fed dynamically into Landis-ii to have a fully coupled interactive model.

C) InVEST ecosystem services suite of spatial-temporal models. (http://www.naturalcapitalproject.org/InVEST.html). This suite of models will be run on output from the above models at a time step of 1-5 years to enable a spatial and temporal model of a broad array of outputs, including: water quantity, water nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations, and water sediment flux.

D) Results will be integrated into a web accessible mapping interface implemented through ArcGIS Online, and also in reports, presentations and peer-reviewed publications.

 

Sample relevant web links

Models
http://www.csr.ufmg.br/dinamica/
http://www.naturalcapitalproject.org/InVEST.html

Climate change in the southeastern United States
http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/regions/southeast
https://www.sercc.com/ClimateoftheSoutheastUnitedStates.pdf
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/impacts-adaptation/southeast.html

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